Gold prices ended the week around $3,241, but all eyes are now locked on the critical $3,268 breakout level, as investors brace for a heavy week of U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. While gold has been under pressure lately due to stronger-than-expected job numbers and improved U.S.-China trade sentiment, the coming days could bring new volatility—and potentially open the door for another gold rally.

Why is gold struggling despite rising global uncertainty?

Last week, gold slipped slightly as a solid U.S. jobs report and signs of easing trade tensions took the shine off the precious metal. According to the latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, beating forecasts of 130,000. That surprise gain pushed Treasury yields higher and dampened hopes for a near-term interest rate cut.

Since gold doesn’t offer any yield, rising bond yields often make it less attractive. This time was no different. Traders immediately scaled back bets on a June rate cut, and that shift pressured gold prices even more.

Market strategist Daniel Pavilonis highlighted that optimism around U.S.-China trade talks is also weighing on gold. On Friday, China’s Commerce Ministry signaled willingness to negotiate on tariffs—a move that boosted risk-on sentiment and capped gold below the $3,500 mark.

What key data is expected to shake up gold prices next week?

Next week is packed with market-moving U.S. macro data, and gold traders are on high alert. Here’s the full lineup: While no rate hike or cut is expected, Powell’s tone during the press conference will be key. If he signals any hint of dovishness—or even acknowledges economic softening—gold could get a fresh lift. Otherwise, hawkish signals may keep gold bulls on the sidelines.

Could a breakout above $3,268 trigger a gold rally?

Technically speaking, gold (XAU/USD) is caught in a tight zone, trading just under the $3,268 resistance. That level marks a descending trendline as well as the 50-period EMA—both key indicators for short-term price direction.

If gold can break and hold above $3,268, analysts suggest it could unlock further upside targets around $3,275 and $3,295. But caution is warranted—traders should wait for confirmation before jumping in, especially with volatility likely to rise after upcoming economic events.

On the downside, support sits at $3,231, followed by $3,204. While the MACD indicator remains bearish, there are signs it’s beginning to stabilize, hinting that momentum could shift soon.

What’s the trade setup for gold this week?

Here’s a simplified breakdown of the gold trade strategy many are watching: If the Fed or ISM data surprise to the downside, gold could benefit as rate cut hopes revive. On the flip side, strong data could push Treasury yields even higher and pressure gold further.

New traders should resist the temptation to chase early breakouts. With so many events lined up, waiting for pullbacks after volatility spikes might offer safer entries.

Will gold finally push past the $3,500 ceiling?

For now, $3,500 remains a ceiling for gold, and that’s largely due to the rebound in market risk appetite. The shift comes as geopolitical risks ease and economic indicators surprise to the upside.

Unless we see major dovish signals from the Fed, or weaker-than-expected economic data, gold may struggle to break that upper level in the short term. But if macro conditions shift—even slightly—the $3,268 breakout could be the trigger for a fresh gold rally.

Until then, gold remains at a crossroads—caught between strong U.S. fundamentals, cooling inflation, and cautious central bank messaging.